The Offset Argument

THIS IS going to be a little weird, but I am going to have an argument with myself over the future of offset printing. I must caution the weak of heart to be prepared for violence and possible rough language.

John: You are an idiot! What do you mean offset is dying?

Me: Just what I said. Offset is quickly fading into the sunset.

John: No it's not. I'll admit that it is slowly declining, but so is black-and-white copying. Digital color is growing, but it's still way too expensive for any kind of quantity.

Me: You are correct on that. But I'm talking about five, 10, 20 years from now. Heck, we don't have any idea what technology will bring us 12 months from now. I mean, get real. iPads for one will only grow in strength and popularity. If there is not an app for that now, there will be next week.

John: Why is it then that all the research is telling us that print is the way to advertise? Huh? For crying out loud, I spend more time deleting e-mail junk than I do reading e-mails that are important to me. Now you're trying to tell me there will be more. I don't think so.

Me: How about Virtual Reality?

John: Yeah, that's a good one. Maybe my avatar will make all my buying decisions. I can't wait to snuggle up with a good Kindle on a cold winter night. Don't feed me this junk about how no one will want a real book anymore. As a dyed-in-the-wool Baby Boomer, I will always choose real over electronic.

Me: You are just a techno-incompetent.

John: No I'm not, you dill weed. I'm as savvy as you are. Maybe more so. I contend that my generation and the Gen X group will always demand paper. Now the other generations, I'm not so sure of. It is a little hard to read a book, when you can't read. I will say this, the thing that will kill offset faster than technology is finding people that want to actually work. You know, learn a trade, and produce something. Heck everyone that graduates from college today immediately wants to be the boss making six figures.

Me: Why get dirty when you don't have to?

John: Good one, who writes you're stuff? Let me ask you this. Why spend five times the money to produce something that you need? Delete, delete, delete. At least with a printed piece you have to glance at it before you choose to throw it away—I mean recycle it.

Me: Do you live in a closet? The world is changing. Steve Jobs just died. Wake up.

John: I know he died. I had a 128, with the signatures on the inside of the back cover. I love change, but mass production will remain a viable method of manufacturing for a long time. Companies have too much invested in big iron to just dump it. Printing presses are built to last, pretty much forever. Like most things, once it is paid for it becomes pretty cheap to operate. And if they are cheap to operate, then prices can be reduced. Granted they will become more costly to maintain and eventually they will need to be replaced. But if you bought a new press within the last 10 years, you probably plan to keep it going for quite some time.

Me: That is just money wasted by uninformed business owners.

John: As compared to what? Money wasted by the government? Right now the economy is killing everyone. The strong are surviving and the weak are closing up shop. What is a reasonable ROI for a large press? Five to seven years? Is offset printing going to gone by then? More than a few people don't think so. Technology is going to impact all businesses. Not just printers. But the reality is that whether it is here in the U.S. or somewhere in the world, there will be a demand for mass production of printed materials. You might have forgotten that there are a few countries that are not as advanced, technology-wise, as the good old U.S. of A. Wait, it's pretty much all of them. Knuckhead.

Me: O.K., so maybe offset won't kick the bucket for 10 years. It is still going the way of letterpress.

John: That's right. The same letterpress equipment that we are still using today for, say, embossing and foil stamping.

Me: For the time being.

John: Have you ever considered that technology might change how offset printing is done? New ways of imaging on existing equipment?

Me: That could happen, but most will migrate to inkjet technology. Digital offset will go to wider sheets and the cost will decrease.

John: Sure, but what will those devices cost? $1 to $5 million? Got to make a lot of prints at 100 copies per minutes to cover that expense.

Me: We will see, won't we?

John: Sure will, but in the meantime, I will trust in the tried and true. The method that is the most cost effective and the one that will still be here 20 years from today. Maybe not as robust as it is today, but effective nonetheless.

Me: Well since we have beaten this topic to death, we better go and get a drink.

John: You're buying. You remember what I always say? I only drink when I'm alone or with someone.

Me: That figures, on both accounts.