How the Economy May Impact Printing

trying to peg down the path of a hurricane. Davis has crunched the numbers and feels the odds [50 percent] are most likely that the U.S. economy will continue on its current trajectory of continued, yet spotty, growth during the next 36 months. Accelerated growth has a 25 percent chance of finally rearing its head; ditto for the chances that we’ll see a mild to average recession during the course of the next three years.

Fortunately, a major recession seems a remote possibility, given that downturns of this caliber are extremely rare. Particularly since it would come on the heels of one of our nation’s most prolific downturns.

How does this impact GDP growth? The slow-growth trend would call for a 2.4 percent increase during the next three years. Accelerated growth would see that number climb to 3.5 percent by 2017, which would be the highest rate since 2004. The recessional scenario would see a bottoming out at -1 percent before turning flat in 2017.

There is reason for optimism. Paparozzi points out that sales have risen 5.5 percent from the 2011 low. An impressive 32.3 percent of Epicomm’s research respondents predicted increased sales by at least 5 percent in 2015 when they were polled, and another 24 percent believe they will see a bump of at least 10 percent.

Presidential Election to the Rescue

One of the biggest variables that could sway the printing industry’s fortunes during the next four years is, in itself, a prime resource for printing work. The 2016 presidential election will produce a considerable influx of political printing—Davis estimates it will actually represent about 0.5 percent of printing growth next year—but, ultimately, the next president will hold even greater influence based upon his or her policies and agenda.

In fact, Davis feels some public policy issues could enable the economy—and printing sales—to reap the best-case scenario of accelerated growth. Even under a Republican president, the odds are long that all of the items on Davis’ laundry list would make the cut.

The list includes: pro-growth tax reform, with a reduction in corporate income taxes to make the U.S. tax system more efficient and competitive; regulatory reform to encourage business and employee expansion; export-friendly trade agreements; more independence by the Federal Reserve System; and “serious” entitlement reform to help foster deficit reduction.

“Printing as a marketing and promotional medium is still doing quite well,” Davis concludes. “Printing tends to do well in a mature economic recovery phase. Even 1 percent growth is fairly stable in such a big industry. There are still a lot of dollars out there that printers can chase.” IPG